Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Our model puts a Middlesbrough win at 38% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.36.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,876 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 705 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Middlesbrough at 2.05, which implies about 48.8%. Our model has it at 38% — 10.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Stoke City are on a run
Stoke City arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Middlesbrough take 18.3 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.