Burnley vs Charlton Athletic
Our model puts a Burnley win at 66.8% in this Championship fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.13 to 0.82.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,876 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.9% of the time — 172 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 1.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Burnley at 1.65, which implies about 60.6%. Our model has it at 66.8% — 6.2 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Burnley carry a rating of 1588 against 1487 for Charlton Athletic, a gap of 101 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Burnley's attack should find room against Charlton Athletic's defence, by 99 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Burnley are off their season peak
Burnley peaked at 1645 this season and sit at 1588 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.