Bristol City vs Blackburn Rovers

Tuesday, 13 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

47%

Bristol City wins

25%

Draw

28%

Blackburn Rovers wins

xG Home

1.56

Bristol City

Blowout %

38%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.14

Blackburn Rovers

Analysis

Our model puts a Bristol City win at 47% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.56 to 1.14.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,876 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.4% of the time — 578 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1537 against 1542, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.10

Bristol City

3.50

Draw

3.55

Blackburn Rovers

Published 14 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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