Tenerife vs Girona
Our model puts a Girona win at 50.5% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.01 to 1.59.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,832 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.8% of the time — 554 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Girona at 2.55, which implies about 39.2%. Our model has it at 50.5% — 11.3 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Girona carry a rating of 1631 against 1454 for Tenerife, a gap of 177 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Tenerife's attack will struggle to break down Girona's defence, by 119 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Tenerife are off their season peak
Tenerife peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1454 today, 46 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Tenerife struggles to hit the target: 26.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Girona take 16.5 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Tenerife collect 3.6 cards a match, on 14.9 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
36.4% of Tenerife's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
59.5% of the shots on target Tenerife face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.