Levante vs Sevilla
Our model puts a Levante win at 40.9% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,832 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.4% of the time — 696 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1644 against 1663, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Sevilla collect 3.2 cards a match, on 14.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
75% of Sevilla's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.