FC Famalicao vs Alverca

Monday, 12 October 2026 at 19:15

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

51%

FC Famalicao wins

24%

Draw

25%

Alverca wins

xG Home

1.70

FC Famalicao

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.12

Alverca

Analysis

Our model puts a FC Famalicao win at 50.7% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.7 to 1.12.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,832 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.8% of the time — 554 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

1.87

FC Famalicao

3.35

Draw

4.40

Alverca

Published 13 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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