Eyupspor vs Goztepe
Our model puts an Eyupspor win at 50.9% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.79 to 1.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,832 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.8% of the time — 554 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1510 against 1519, a gap of 9 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Eyupspor manage 9.8 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
54.7% of the shots on target Eyupspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.