Coventry City vs Newcastle United
Our model puts a Newcastle United win at 56.9% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.89 to 1.73.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,832 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.1% of the time — 337 fixtures in that band. That is 9.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Coventry City at 3.15, which implies about 31.7%. Our model has it at 19.3% — 12.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Newcastle United carry a rating of 1798 against 1593 for Coventry City, a gap of 205 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Newcastle United's attack should find room against Coventry City's defence, by 258 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Early or late
41.2% of Newcastle United's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.