Chapecoense vs Athletico Paranaense

Monday, 12 October 2026 at 22:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

31%

Chapecoense wins

22%

Draw

47%

Athletico Paranaense wins

xG Home

1.53

Chapecoense

Blowout %

33%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.94

Athletico Paranaense

Analysis

Our model puts an Athletico Paranaense win at 46.9% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.94.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,832 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.8% of the time — 554 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

3.80

Chapecoense

3.55

Draw

1.95

Athletico Paranaense

Published 13 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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