Troyes vs Marseille
Our model puts a Marseille win at 50% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.03 to 1.58.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Marseille carry a rating of 1675 against 1534 for Troyes, a gap of 142 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Marseille's attack should find room against Troyes's defence, by 145 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Marseille are off their season peak
Marseille peaked at 1758 this season and sit at 1675 today, 82 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Troyes struggles to hit the target: 26.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Marseille take 14.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
73.3% of Marseille's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 15 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.