St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC

Sunday, 11 October 2026 at 11:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

52%

St. Pauli wins

24%

Draw

23%

Karlsruher SC wins

xG Home

1.68

St. Pauli

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.02

Karlsruher SC

Analysis

Our model puts a St. Pauli win at 52.4% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 1.02.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1548 against 1538, a gap of 10 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.74

St. Pauli

4.10

Draw

4.20

Karlsruher SC

Published 12 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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