Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Our model puts a Rosario Central win at 49.3% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.61 to 1.09.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1533 against 1526, a gap of 7 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.