Nice vs Strasbourg
Our model puts a Strasbourg win at 41.2% in this Ligue 1 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.43.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.4% of the time — 675 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Nice at 2.4, which implies about 41.7%. Our model has it at 32.8% — 8.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Strasbourg carry a rating of 1711 against 1595 for Nice, a gap of 116 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Strasbourg's attack should find room against Nice's defence, by 112 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Nice struggles to hit the target: 28.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Strasbourg hits the target more often than almost anyone: 44.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
77.8% of Nice's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 9 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.