Liverpool vs Manchester City
Our model puts a Manchester City win at 46.6% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.17 to 1.58.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Manchester City carry a rating of 1962 against 1854 for Liverpool, a gap of 108 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Manchester City's attack should find room against Liverpool's defence, by 140 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Liverpool are hard to beat
Liverpool have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
How often they shoot
Manchester City take 16.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.