Lecce vs Bologna
Our model puts a Bologna win at 45.3% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.09 to 1.45.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Bologna carry a rating of 1707 against 1591 for Lecce, a gap of 116 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lecce's attack will struggle to break down Bologna's defence, by 97 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Lecce manage 9.1 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
75.4% of the shots on target Lecce face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.