Hull City vs Everton
Our model puts an Everton win at 52.3% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.96 to 1.61.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Everton carry a rating of 1766 against 1582 for Hull City, a gap of 183 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Hull City's attack will struggle to break down Everton's defence, by 129 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Everton are hard to beat
Everton have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Finding the target
Everton hits the target more often than almost anyone: 42.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.