FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København
Our model puts a FC Midtjylland win at 60.2% in this Danish Superliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.14 to 1.1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.2% of the time — 313 fixtures in that band. That is 9.3 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, FC Midtjylland's attack should find room against F.C. København's defence, by 149 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.