FC Andorra vs Castellón
Our model puts a Castellón win at 42.7% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.15 to 1.4.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.4% of the time — 675 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Castellón are hard to beat
Castellón have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
How often they shoot
Castellón take 17.3 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
FC Andorra collect 3.4 cards a match, on 14.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
78.3% of the shots on target Castellón face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.