Cagliari vs Juventus
Our model puts a Juventus win at 54.1% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.95 to 1.67.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Juventus at 1.54, which implies about 64.9%. Our model has it at 54.1% — 10.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Juventus carry a rating of 1818 against 1655 for Cagliari, a gap of 163 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Juventus's attack should find room against Cagliari's defence, by 176 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Cagliari are on a run
Cagliari arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Juventus take 17.2 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
42.9% of Cagliari's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 14 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
77.8% of the shots on target Cagliari face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.