Cádiz vs Sporting Gijón
Our model puts a Cádiz win at 42% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.37 to 1.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.4% of the time — 675 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Cádiz collect 4 cards a match, on 12.5 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
72.2% of Cádiz's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.