Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes
Our model puts a Benfica win at 85.5% in this Primeira Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.01 to 0.51.
The ratings gap
Benfica carry a rating of 1798 against 1469 for Vitoria de Guimaraes, a gap of 329 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Benfica's attack should find room against Vitória de Guimaraes's defence, by 272 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Benfica take 19.5 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 85.3%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.