Bahia vs Mirassol
Our model puts a Bahia win at 45.9% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.62 to 1.24.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.5% of the time — 550 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Bahia at 1.69, which implies about 59.2%. Our model has it at 45.9% — 13.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1506 against 1513, a gap of 7 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.