Atlético-MG vs Santos
Our model puts an Atlético-MG win at 41.2% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.3.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.4% of the time — 675 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1518 against 1507, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Santos are hard to beat
Santos have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.