Atlas vs Guadalajara

Sunday, 11 October 2026 at 01:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

30%

Atlas wins

25%

Draw

46%

Guadalajara wins

xG Home

1.24

Atlas

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.60

Guadalajara

Analysis

Our model puts a Guadalajara win at 45.5% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.6.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

3.40

Atlas

3.55

Draw

2.05

Guadalajara

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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