Almería vs Leganés
Our model puts an Almería win at 61.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.85 to 0.8.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,776 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.2% of the time — 313 fixtures in that band. That is 9.3 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Almería's attack should find room against Leganés's defence, by 114 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Almería are on a run
Almería arrive on 5 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Almería take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Almería collect 3.1 cards a match, on 13.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.