York City vs Northampton Town

Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 14:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

61%

York City wins

21%

Draw

18%

Northampton Town wins

xG Home

2.01

York City

Blowout %

50%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.97

Northampton Town

Analysis

Our model puts a York City win at 60.9% in this League Two fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.01 to 0.97.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.5% of the time — 305 fixtures in that band. That is 10 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.

Market odds

1.50

York City

4.40

Draw

6.00

Northampton Town

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export