Watford vs Burnley
Our model puts a Burnley win at 41.6% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.21 to 1.42.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Early or late
30% of Watford's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 10 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
58.6% of the shots on target Burnley face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.