Toronto FC vs CF Montréal

Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 17:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

48%

Toronto FC wins

24%

Draw

28%

CF Montréal wins

xG Home

1.69

Toronto FC

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.25

CF Montréal

Analysis

Our model puts a Toronto FC win at 47.5% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 1.25.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

1.95

Toronto FC

3.70

Draw

3.40

CF Montréal

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export