Tigre vs Banfield
Our model puts a Tigre win at 61.7% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.17 to 1.06.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.5% of the time — 305 fixtures in that band. That is 10 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 3.5, which implies about 28.6%. Our model has it at 20.4% — 8.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.