Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Our model puts a Brighton & Hove Albion win at 43% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.49.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
How often they shoot
Brighton & Hove Albion take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
53.2% of the shots on target Sunderland face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.