Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
Our model puts a Trabzonspor win at 36.4% in this Süper Lig fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.24.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Behind the defence
76.7% of the shots on target Trabzonspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.