Saint-Étienne vs Rodez Aveyron
Our model puts a Saint-Étienne win at 69.2% in this Ligue 2 fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.53 to 1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.3% of the time — 150 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 0 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Early or late
36.4% of Saint-Étienne's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 22 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.