RC Celta Fortuna vs Real Sociedad II

Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 19:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

38%

RC Celta Fortuna wins

25%

Draw

38%

Real Sociedad II wins

xG Home

1.51

RC Celta Fortuna

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.51

Real Sociedad II

Analysis

Our model puts a RC Celta Fortuna win at 37.8% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.51 to 1.51.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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