RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge
Our model puts a Club Brugge win at 74.1% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.76 to 2.5.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.3% of the time — 150 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 0 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
How often they shoot
Club Brugge take 19.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
80% of the shots on target Club Brugge face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.