Port Vale vs Grimsby Town
Our model puts a Port Vale win at 39.2% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.22.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Early or late
76.9% of Port Vale's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.