Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon
Our model puts a Plymouth Argyle win at 63% in this League One fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.85 to 0.75.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.5% of the time — 305 fixtures in that band. That is 10 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 61.9%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.