Notts County vs Oxford United
Our model puts a Notts County win at 48.8% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.56 to 1.06.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Oxford United at 2.95, which implies about 33.9%. Our model has it at 25.8% — 8.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Behind the defence
58.3% of the shots on target Notts County face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.