Napoli vs Frosinone
Our model puts a Napoli win at 66.2% in this Serie A fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.94 to 0.7.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.3% of the time — 150 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 0 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
How often they shoot
Frosinone take 18 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
87.7% of the shots on target Frosinone face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 61.2%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.