Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen

Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 13:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

29%

Mainz wins

25%

Draw

46%

Bayer Leverkusen wins

xG Home

1.19

Mainz

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.56

Bayer Leverkusen

Analysis

Our model puts a Bayer Leverkusen win at 45.5% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.19 to 1.56.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

How often they shoot

Bayer Leverkusen take 20 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.

Market odds

2.95

Mainz

3.75

Draw

2.10

Bayer Leverkusen

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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