Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
Our model puts an AZ Alkmaar win at 39.8% in this Eredivisie fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.4 to 1.5.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Feyenoord Rotterdam at 1.65, which implies about 60.6%. Our model has it at 35.2% — 25.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Finding the target
AZ Alkmaar hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
AZ Alkmaar take 18.1 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target AZ Alkmaar face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.