FC Juárez vs Tijuana

Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 23:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

33%

FC Juárez wins

24%

Draw

44%

Tijuana wins

xG Home

1.43

FC Juárez

Blowout %

37%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.69

Tijuana

Analysis

Our model puts a Tijuana win at 43.6% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.43 to 1.69.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

2.95

FC Juárez

3.40

Draw

2.35

Tijuana

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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