Derby County vs Wrexham

Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 14:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

35%

Derby County wins

27%

Draw

38%

Wrexham wins

xG Home

1.21

Derby County

Blowout %

26%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.27

Wrexham

Analysis

Our model puts a Wrexham win at 37.9% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.21 to 1.27.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Behind the defence

59.1% of the shots on target Wrexham face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.

Market odds

3.00

Derby County

3.35

Draw

2.40

Wrexham

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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