Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
Our model puts a Chesterfield win at 48.4% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.12 to 1.61.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Chesterfield at 1.62, which implies about 61.7%. Our model has it at 48.4% — 13.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
Chesterfield take 14.7 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
75% of Crawley Town's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
76.1% of the shots on target Crawley Town face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.