Ceuta vs CD Sabadell
Our model puts a Ceuta win at 59.1% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 2.01 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.5% of the time — 305 fixtures in that band. That is 10 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Ceuta at 3.1, which implies about 32.3%. Our model has it at 59.1% — 26.8 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
Ceuta manage 8.9 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
53.8% of the shots on target Ceuta face do not end up in the net, against 67.6% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.