Caykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce
Our model puts a Fenerbahce win at 62.1% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.81 to 1.88.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.5% of the time — 305 fixtures in that band. That is 10 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Caykur Rizespor at 4.4, which implies about 22.7%. Our model has it at 15.8% — 6.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Finding the target
Fenerbahce hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Fenerbahce take 18.4 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Fenerbahce collect 3.2 cards a match, on 12 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.