Benevento vs Cesena
Our model puts a Benevento win at 41.5% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 621 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Benevento at 1.91, which implies about 52.4%. Our model has it at 41.5% — 10.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Finding the target
Benevento struggles to hit the target: 26.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Cesena struggles to hit the target: 26.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Benevento take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
38.5% of Cesena's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.