Alavés vs Atlético Madrid

Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 14:15

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

25%

Alavés wins

25%

Draw

50%

Atlético Madrid wins

xG Home

1.06

Alavés

Blowout %

13%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.61

Atlético Madrid

Analysis

Our model puts an Atlético Madrid win at 49.9% in this La Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.06 to 1.61.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

How often they shoot

Atlético Madrid take 15.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.

Market odds

4.30

Alavés

3.75

Draw

1.83

Atlético Madrid

Published 11 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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