Académico de Viseu vs Estoril
Our model puts an Académico de Viseu win at 49.5% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.03.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Estoril at 3.05, which implies about 32.8%. Our model has it at 25.1% — 7.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.