US Avellino vs Sampdoria
Our model puts an US Avellino win at 48.1% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price US Avellino at 2.7, which implies about 37%. Our model has it at 48.1% — 11.1 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1469 against 1440, a gap of 29 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Sampdoria are off their season peak
Sampdoria peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1440 today, 60 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
87.5% of Sampdoria's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 8 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
56.8% of the shots on target Sampdoria face do not end up in the net, against 67.9% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.