Sochaux vs Boulogne
Our model puts a Sochaux win at 61.7% in this Ligue 2 fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.8 to 0.76.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.5% of the time — 305 fixtures in that band. That is 10 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Sochaux at 2.3, which implies about 43.5%. Our model has it at 61.7% — 18.2 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Sochaux are hard to beat
Sochaux have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Boulogne are off their season peak
Boulogne peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1429 today, 71 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Boulogne manage 8.5 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
40% of Sochaux's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 10 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.